Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,922$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(-1.72 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $248$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{351.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 153.4)}}\) (asimptote \(351.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,138$ on 2020-09-20

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,283$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,730.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(35,730.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,045$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.63 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,965.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,965.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,738$ on 2020-09-20

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $298,156$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250,850.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(250,850.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,707$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.4 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,828.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,828.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,098$ on 2020-09-20

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,804,814$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.74 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,739,268.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,739,268.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $199,509$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,831.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.4)}}\) (asimptote \(186,831.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,014,634$ on 2020-09-20

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $396,744$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(9.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320,992.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 61.5)}}\) (asimptote \(320,992.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,866$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(120.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,838.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,838.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $352,650$ on 2020-09-20

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $88,237$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,822.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 96.1)}}\) (asimptote \(86,822.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,865$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,747.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,747.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $82,372$ on 2020-09-20

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $273,965$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(8.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(115.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,165.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(217,165.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,390$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,062.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,062.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,383$ on 2020-09-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 98%
New Zealand recovered 93%
Kazakhstan recovered 89%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 88%
Egypt recovered 88%
Suriname recovered 86%
Chile recovered 83%
Vietnam recovered 81%
Zambia recovered 81%
Sri Lanka recovered 80%
Australia recovered 79%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 79%
Azerbaijan recovered 79%
Saudi Arabia recovered 76%
Korea, South recovered 68%
Nigeria recovered 67%
Japan recovered 59%
El Salvador recovered 56%
Namibia recovered 55%
Zimbabwe recovered 52%
Maldives recovered 48%
Bolivia recovered 45%
Mexico recovered 37%
Malawi recovered 35%
Belize recovered 33%
Senegal recovered 29%
Peru recovered 26%
Bangladesh recovered 24%
Rwanda recovered 19%
Venezuela recovered 18%
Panama recovered 12%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,576$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 116.4)}}\) (asimptote \(55,178.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.76 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $368$ on 2020-09-20

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,815$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.14 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,573.9}{1 + 10^{-0.083 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,573.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(13.7 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(181.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22.1}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 21.4)}}\) (asimptote \(22.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62$ on 2020-09-20

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $107,307$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,914.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.1)}}\) (asimptote \(108,914.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,671$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(35.4 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,739.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,739.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,695$ on 2020-09-20

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,320$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,998.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.1)}}\) (asimptote \(18,998.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(21.2 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 83.6)}}\) (asimptote \(126.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $740$ on 2020-09-20