Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,922$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(-1.72 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $248$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{351.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 153.4)}}\) (asimptote \(351.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,138$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,283$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,730.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(35,730.6\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,045$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.63 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,965.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,965.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,738$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $298,156$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250,850.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(250,850.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,707$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(6.4 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,828.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,828.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,098$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,804,814$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(5.74 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,739,268.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,739,268.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $199,509$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,831.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.4)}}\) (asimptote \(186,831.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,014,634$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $396,744$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(9.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320,992.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 61.5)}}\) (asimptote \(320,992.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,866$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(120.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,838.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,838.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $352,650$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $88,237$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,822.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 96.1)}}\) (asimptote \(86,822.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,865$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,747.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,747.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $82,372$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $273,965$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(8.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(115.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,165.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(217,165.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,390$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,062.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,062.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,383$ on 2020-09-20